What's In a Number?
The Changing Death Toll in the Israel-Gaza Conflict.
I published this on a motion passed in Canadian Parliament in March. And it contained the use of the number 30,000 casualties, a figure that despite being widely used, is still open for debate. Its source the Gaza Ministry of Health, which, is also known as Hamas-run health ministry.
When the war started in October, the Hamas-run health ministry was given credibility because their casualty figures were extremely similar to both the UN, and Israel. They stopped reporting casualty figures for a three-week period starting November 10 2023 ending December 2. A report issued by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy suggests all figures provided after November 10 lack credibility due to their reliance on “reliable news sources”
The report cites discrepancies that most of the time underestimated the number of dead on Hamas’ side. For example Hamas estimated 471 were killed the in al-Ahli hospital blast, with seven additional deaths occurring elsewhere. The UN says that 62 were killed by airstrikes in Jabalia refugee camp, making theirs 533. Hamas underestimated by 45.
The United Nations (UN) started with a casualty estimate of 34,735, prior to April 30. It breaks down to 9,500 women, and approximately 14,500 children. Suddenly, around the end of April, they revised casualty estimates downwards to 24,686 dead. The report specified 10,006 men, and 1,924 children. It amounted to 40% men, 32% children, and 20% women. They added a disclaimer saying the UN has been unable to produce independent, comprehensive, and verified casualty figures. As of July 11 the number of dead has risen again to 38,745. The lack of trustworthy data creates a big problem for western governments, and aid agencies as they seek to help the survivors. It undermines gestures such as the Motion I previously mentioned.
The Lancet
For those who don’t know the Lancet is a medical journal that’s been in operation for over 200 years. This week they published a letter written by Rasha Khatib, Martin Mckee, and Salim Yusuf entitled: Counting the dead in Gaza: difficult but essential.
Their figures are 37,396 as of June 19 according the UN. 186,000 deaths when the data is expanded to include a ratio of four indirect deaths for every 1 direct death based on the 2022 population. An indirect death refers to someone who died because of famine/disease, or a lack of shelter.
It also calls for an immediate, and urgent ceasefire, and for Israel to “take effective measures to prevent the destruction and ensure the preservation of evidence related to the Genocide Convention.”
I start from the position that Gaza is governed by Hamas, which is a terrorist organization. Terrorist organizations by their nature are untrustworthy. It follows to a natural conclusion that any data they produce would be inherently flawed, placing themselves in a better light than the Israelis.
My questions are: How can you possibly accurately estimate the number of deaths for the historic record as the writers insist on doing? How do you prove genocide when the data being used is itself flawed? The simple answer: You can’t. It weakens the case for genocide, if it even exists. It also takes away from the understanding of historic record.