The new ridings that could make a difference. I live in Milton, which is set to split off into Halton Hills South-East Milton, and Burlington North-West Milton as of the next federal election. I was at a Conservative meet & Greet a couple of weeks ago, and had a chance to meet, and listen to a candidate for the nomination from Georgetown. The candidate hit most of the high notes- Trudeau scandal-ridden, Pronouns bad. Most of the Conservative high points, even mentioning firearms, and crime reforms which played well in the room.
The problem was, most of the room was from Halton Hills South. A Milton Conservative is different. Those who decided who to vote for based on those issues have left, for other parties leaving a decidedly more moderate group that vote based more on issues related to economy, and affordability. It’s setting up to be more of an urban-rural battle, with Parm Gill representing urban Milton.
It sets up a scenario where there could be a third candidate that manages to straddle the divide. Someone who comes forward with a grasp of both rural, and urban issues, while at the same time appealing to voters with that lean towards the economy as their top priority. The older Millennial group might fit the bill. The affordability crisis has made a life with a stable career, a house in the suburbs a pipe dream. Trudeau is the one who came into office on the tagline of working hard for the middle class and those working hard to join it. Eight years later, a while generation of people now find that stability associated with a steady job and a home they own, is nothing but a pipe dream.
Poilievre has already mined that anger, as well as voter fatigue enough to secure a minority government. It’s how that anger plays in the new ridings that could make that a majority.