Election Roulette Ontario Edition
The wheel might land on election soon
I’ve been chatting with a friend about the possibility of an Ontario election. Speculation has been ramping up since the announcement about bringing booze into corner stores. That was previously planned as one of the last things to be brought forward before the scheduled 2026 campaign. The fact it was brought forward set tongues wagging over the chances Doug Ford would call an early election.
We agree that he will. But we disagree on the timing. She says it’s going to be this year- a few weeks after the by-election for the seat in Quinte September 19. There is room there, but for a snap election. If he waits three weeks after the by-election it takes us to Thanksgiving. A dissolution then would set up a snap election for sometime in mid/ late November. There’d be pushback against the money spent on an unnecessary campaign, amidst an affordability crisis, homelessness, municipalities starved for infrastructure cash, and a healthcare system that is in need of serious fixing. And I think it is possible in the timeline outlined. Plus there’s an item out from Global News yesterday that the PC’s are “weeks out” from nominating candidates. Seeing as nominations for a majority as large as his are more a formality, a mid-late November date is a possibility.
But I also think a more likely target is next spring because of the Greenbelt scandal. There is one certain thing about this, and it’s that Doug Ford believes he’s right. It’s cost him three ministers already, one of whom barely stayed in Education portfolio for a cup of coffee before resigning. It’s confirmed that a) there is an ongoing RCMP investigation into the issue, and b) they’ve been talking to officials close to Ford.
The RCMP pauses investigations during a writ period (election). Depending on how close they are to any potential charges, he could call it now. If not, then he waits to spring. I think the game for him is to try to get Parliamentary privileges, which may immunize him on the Greenbelt factor, because he did talk about it in the Legislature. It’s likely they’re looking at more than just the Greenbelt scandal- the infamous Stag &Doe tickets were $150/ each, and that just screams party fundraiser to me. That’s illegal under section 23 of the elections financing act. The party wasn’t for Doug Ford, but it took place at his house. Guilt of a criminal act is enough to disqualify individuals from political office.
My own sense of the political polls right now is generally Ontarians don’t know what they want yet. Bonnie Crombie has yet to pick a riding- or has yet to announce it. Whether it happens now, or next year it’s a game of Election roulette, with voters winning or losing depending on when it’s called.